The junior doctors’ strikes may be over. But is trouble ahead?

It had been the NHS’s longest-running and bitterest pay dispute – accountable for tons of of hundreds of cancelled operations and appointments.

After which, abruptly, phrase got here on Monday that the British Medical Affiliation was recommending that its 50,000 junior physician members settle for a recent provide from the brand new authorities.

It sounded nearly too good to be true. And now some are questioning if it is likely to be.

Final Friday, simply three days after formal negotiations began on the Division of Well being’s London headquarters, Well being Secretary Wes Streeting laid his playing cards on the desk.

It was, he made clear to the British Medical Affiliation delegation, a remaining provide – a pay rise topping 22% on common over two years in England.

The union’s crew mentioned they needed to consider it over the weekend. On Sunday, the BMA junior physician leaders met and determined that, whereas it fell in need of their demand for a 35% pay improve, this was the very best deal they may get.

Cue a lot trumpeting from the federal government – in her look on the Home of Commons, Chancellor Rachel Reeves paid tribute to work put in by the well being secretary.

Mr Streeting had met the BMA joint junior physician leaders Dr Rob Laurenson and Dr Vivek Trivedi a number of occasions earlier than the election – asking them of their final assembly on Zoom to name off the strike they have been about to carry within the lead-up to polling day.

When he was made well being secretary, Mr Streeting instantly known as the BMA to arrange talks. Two conferences have been held with Dr Laurenson and Dr Trivedi in a 10-day interval following his appointment – earlier than the formal pay talks began.

The well being secretary’s hand was helped by the actual fact the impartial pay evaluation physique’s suggestions for the 2024-25 pay rise had simply landed on his desk, suggesting a 6% pay rise and £1,000 lump sum be given.

This allowed him to make a proposal which successfully mixed two years of pay rises. He topped up final yr’s pay award – value almost 9% on common – with an additional 4% in addition to agreeing to the pay evaluation physique’s advice for the present monetary yr.

In lower than every week of talks, the brand new well being secretary had achieved what the earlier authorities had didn’t do over the course of 11 strikes within the earlier 18 months.

“What’s necessary is it may very well be offered as a win-win for either side,” one supply near the talks mentioned.

“The BMA bought an enormous quantity, whereas the federal government solely put in an additional 4% above what the pay evaluation physique advisable throughout the 2 years – that is only one share level greater than what the Tories placed on the desk again in December when talks collapsed.”

Defending the deal, Ms Reeves known as the prices – round £350m – a “drop within the ocean” in comparison with the £1.7bn value of NHS strikes.

That will all be true, however what’s on provide to junior docs has not gone unnoticed elsewhere within the NHS.

A pay rise of solely 2% for NHS employees was budgeted for within the funding given to the well being service this yr.

The Treasury has indicated it’s going to cowl among the additional, however maybe not all. That has triggered concern amongst senior managers working hospitals.

“Until we get further cash to pay for this pay rise we must take cash out of providers and that isn’t proper for the those that we serve,” says Nick Hulme, the boss of Ipswich and Colchester Hospitals.

There’s additionally frustration amongst different frontline employees who’re having to make do with a lot much less. Workers equivalent to nurses, midwives, paramedics and physios have acquired just a little greater than half the rise junior docs have received.

The Royal Faculty of Nursing (RCN) has mentioned it’s going to now be consulting its members to see what they need to do – and industrial motion shouldn’t be being dominated out.

“We don’t begrudge docs their pay rise,” RCN chief Prof Nicola Ranger says. “What we ask for is identical honest therapy from authorities.”

Prof Len Shackleton, an economist on the College of Buckingham and analysis fellow on the Institute of Financial Affairs, believes this may very well be simply the beginning of a recent spherical of pay calls for.

“The federal government is naïve if it thinks that is over – different unions will take a look at this deal and assume they’ll get extra, not simply these within the NHS however throughout the general public sector. This might spiral uncontrolled.”

On Thursday GPs launched a work-to-rule over what they are saying is inadequate funding for common follow – though the poll main as much as this was run earlier than the junior physician deal was introduced.

And already there are indicators the junior docs themselves might be again asking for extra.

In WhatsApp messages leaked to the Occasions newspaper, Dr Laurenson mentioned there could be one other “window of alternative” in 12 months time for additional strikes when the brand new authorities’s honeymoon interval is over.

He mentioned he “desperately” needed to get extra from ministers, however this was the very best that may very well be achieved for now. When the story emerged, he took to X to say he had informed Mr Streeting as a lot to his face through the talks.

The top of the NHS industrial disputes will not be as shut because it first appeared.

Prime image: Getty Photographs

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